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FX Analysis
  1. Friday, September 05th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA

    At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Employment Change. It is expected to come out at 10K. Sir Pips recommends to trade it with 20K triggers (which is a bit higher than usually we have), mostly due to very big price moves we saw today. If it comes out at -10K or more negative, Sir Pips would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at 30K or higher, he would sell EUR/CAD and expect 50 pips move. Well, I think I am going to be a bit more aggressive on it (and this advice is for SNW users only). Will I make money? I hope so. I would enter smaller trades with 15K trigger on EUR/CAD either direction, or much bigger bigger trades with 25K trigger, also on EUR/CAD, and I will be closing my trades as soon as possible. Watch out for the Unemployment Change which may always conflict.
     
  2. Friday, September 05th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

    At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected to come out at -75K with the estimated range of -150K to -40K. I would use 75K trigger on this, which is a big trigger but this is a very risky report to trade so bigger trigger is greatly appreciated. If it comes out at -150K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for 70 pips move. If it comes out at 0K or positive, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD or sell GBP/USD and expect 70 pips move as well. 40 or 50K may work but you need to have a lot of experience to trade with such triggers. The Unemployment rate is a very important factor too. A deviation of 0.2 can either help or crew you up, depending if it is helping or conflicting. Watch out for the revision from the previous month which also can influence the price action.
     
  3. Friday, September 05th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA

    At 10:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Ivey PMI. It we had Non-Farm Payroll or Canadian Employment deviating a lot, skip it. If they came out as expected, then you can try to trade it. A trigger of 4 should be tradable. If it comes out at 66 or higher, I would sell USD/CAD. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would buy USD/CAD, and I would expect 30 pips price action.

    That would be all for this week.


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